Address:

MRC Biostatistics Unit,
Institute of Public Health,
University Forvie Site,
Robinson Way,
Cambridge. UK.
CB2 0SR

Telephone Number:

Email Address:

Research Interests:

• generalised methods for model criticism and comparison in complex evidence synthesis;
• multi-parameter evidence synthesis to estimate the prevalence of HIV in England and Wales, in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency (HPA);
• multi-parameter evidence synthesis to estimate the prevalence of HIV in the Netherlands. This is part of a project in collaboration with WHO/Europe and the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on reviewing and comparing methodologies for national estimates of HIV prevalence and modelling of the HIV epidemic in Europe;
• multi-parameter evidence synthesis to estimate the incidence of HIV in England and Wales from serial estimates of prevalence in a multi-state model;
• evidence synthesis in dynamic transmission models for HIV and influenza;
• evidence synthesis methods for estimating key characteristics of emerging infectious diseases, e.g. severity of the 2009 novel H1N1/A influenza pandemic.

Selected Recent Publications:

Presanis AM, Gill ON, Chadborn TR, Hill C, Hope V, Logan L, Rice BD, Delpech V, Ades AE, De Angelis D. Insights into the rise in HIV infections in England and Wales, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence. AIDS. 24(18):2849-2858, November 27, 2010. To access this article click here.

Presanis AM, De Angelis D, The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team, Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper BS, Finelli L, Biedrzycki P, Lipsitch M. (2009): The Severity of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian Analysis, PLoS Med 6(12): e1000207.

Lattimore S, Yin Z, Logan L, Rice B, Thornton A, Molinar D, Leong G, Presanis A, De Angelis D, Gill N, Delpech V. Situation of HIV infections and STIs in the United Kingdom in 2007. Eurosurveillance 2008;13.

Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Seaman S, Goubar A, Ades AE. Conflicting evidence in a Bayesian synthesis of surveillance data to estimate human immunodeficiency virus prevalence. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society 2008;171:915-37.

Copas A, Seaman S, Raab G, Jewell CP, Presanis A, Sweeting M, Bird SM, Calleja N, Farrington CP, Greenland S, Kalogeropoulos K, Papaspiliopoulos O, Katki HA, Raftery AE, Alkema L. Discussion on the paper by Goubar, Ades, De Angelis, McGarrigle, Mercer, Tookey, Fenton and Gill. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society 2008;171:568-80.

Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections (including Presanis AM). Sexually transmitted infections and men who have sex with men in the United Kingdom: 2008 report.

Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections (including Presanis AM). HIV in the United Kingdom: 2008 report.