CDOoDocuments.StdDocumentDescDocuments.DocumentDescContainers.ViewDescViews.ViewDescStores.StoreDescDocuments.ModelDescContainers.ModelDescModels.ModelDescStores.ElemDesc( TextViews.StdViewDescTextViews.ViewDescTextModels.StdModelDescTextModels.ModelDescMETextModels.AttributesDesc'*B '* 7ArialPS*uTTextRulers.StdRulerDescTextRulers.RulerDescTextRulers.StdStyleDescTextRulers.StyleDescTextRulers.AttributesDescL ZGo Z%$.6?HLQ *: # 9.5. HIV: evidence synthesis and cost-effectiveness and EVPI. MONITOR EVPI1, EVPI2,INB,Q ) model; { # set data r[1]<-11044; r[2]<-12; r[3]<-252; r[4]<-10; r[5]<-74; r[6]<-254 n[1]<-104577; n[2]<-882; n[3]<-15428; n[4]<-473; n[5]<-136139; n[6]<-102287 r[7]<-43; r[8]<-4; r[9]<-87; r[10]<-12; r[11]<-14; r[12]<-5 n[7]<-60; n[8]<-17; n[9]<-254; n[10]<-15; n[11]<-118; n[12]<-31 # SET PRIORS a ~ dbeta( 1,2) z ~ dbeta (1,1) b <- z * (1-a) # sets constraint (1-a-b > 0) c ~ dbeta (1,1) d ~ dbeta (1,1) e ~ dbeta (1,1) f ~ dbeta (1,1) g ~ dbeta (1,1) h ~ dbeta(1,1) w ~ dbeta(1,1) # VECTOR p[1:12] HOLDS THE EXPECTED PROBABILITIES FOR EACH DATA POINT p[1] <- a p[2] <- b p[3] <- c p[4] <- d p[5] <- (d*b + e*(1-a-b))/(1- a) p[6] <- c*a + d*b + e*(1-a-b) p[7] <- f*c*a / (f*c*a + g*d*b + h*e*(1-a-b)) p[8] <- g*d*b / (g*d*b + h*e*(1-a-b)) p[9] <- (f*c *a + g*d*b + h*e*(1-a-b)) / p[6] p[10] <- g p[11] <- w p[12] <- d*b/(d*b+e*(1-a-b)) + w*e*(1-a-b)/(d*b + e*(1-a-b)) x[1]<- 10000*(1-a-b) *(1-e*h) # num additional tests/10000 x[2] <-10000*(1-a-b) *e*(1-h) # num additional cases/10000 # NET BENEFIT OF MATERNAL DIAGNOSIS, INCREMENTAL NET BENEFIT, EVPI for(k in 1:13){ K[k] <- 5000*(k-1) INB[k] <- 105000*(1-a-b) * (K[k] * e * (1-h) - 3.0*(1-e*h)) # annual INB Q[k] <- step(INB[k]) EVPI2[k] <- 7.8 * max(-INB[k],0) # EVPI when prefer option 2 EVPI1[k] <- 7.8 * max(INB[k],0) # EVPI when prefer option 1 } for(i in 1:3){ r[i] ~ dbin(p[i],n[i]) } for(i in 5:12){ r[i] ~ dbin(p[i],n[i]) } }  node mean sd MC error 2.5% median 97.5% start sample EVPI1[1] 0.0 0.0 3.162E-13 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI1[2] 12.99 1183.0 3.67 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI1[3] 274100.0 370400.0 1641.0 0.0 74280.0 1.239E+6 1001 100000 EVPI1[4] 1.229E+6 818700.0 3741.0 0.0 1.193E+6 2.942E+6 1001 100000 EVPI1[5] 2.323E+6 1.154E+6 5307.0 0.0 2.312E+6 4.642E+6 1001 100000 EVPI1[6] 3.435E+6 1.463E+6 6739.0 531300.0 3.43E+6 6.343E+6 1001 100000 EVPI1[7] 4.551E+6 1.764E+6 8126.0 1.071E+6 4.549E+6 8.045E+6 1001 100000 EVPI1[8] 5.668E+6 2.063E+6 9499.0 1.609E+6 5.668E+6 9.748E+6 1001 100000 EVPI1[9] 6.786E+6 2.36E+6 10870.0 2.148E+6 6.786E+6 1.145E+7 1001 100000 EVPI1[10] 7.904E+6 2.657E+6 12240.0 2.687E+6 7.905E+6 1.315E+7 1001 100000 EVPI1[11] 9.023E+6 2.953E+6 13600.0 3.225E+6 9.024E+6 1.485E+7 1001 100000 EVPI1[12] 1.014E+7 3.25E+6 14960.0 3.764E+6 1.014E+7 1.655E+7 1001 100000 EVPI1[13] 1.126E+7 3.546E+6 16330.0 4.302E+6 1.126E+7 1.826E+7 1001 100000 EVPI2[1] 2.163E+6 9847.0 45.28 2.142E+6 2.164E+6 2.18E+6 1001 100000 EVPI2[2] 1.045E+6 295700.0 1368.0 461800.0 1.045E+6 1.624E+6 1001 100000 EVPI2[3] 200400.0 320400.0 1433.0 0.0 0.0 1.085E+6 1001 100000 EVPI2[4] 36820.0 161500.0 671.2 0.0 0.0 546600.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[5] 12040.0 100100.0 403.1 0.0 0.0 8202.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[6] 5698.0 72980.0 287.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[7] 3389.0 58570.0 227.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[8] 2321.0 49640.0 189.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[9] 1734.0 43390.0 164.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[10] 1362.0 38690.0 144.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[11] 1105.0 34990.0 127.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[12] 913.5 31990.0 113.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 EVPI2[13] 776.7 29510.0 103.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 INB[1] -277400.0 1262.0 5.805 -279500.0 -277500.0 -274600.0 1001 100000 INB[2] -1.34E+5 37920.0 175.4 -208200.0 -133900.0 -59200.0 1001 100000 INB[3] 9440.0 75820.0 349.8 -139100.0 9524.0 158900.0 1001 100000 INB[4] 152800.0 113700.0 524.3 -70060.0 152900.0 377200.0 1001 100000 INB[5] 296200.0 151600.0 698.7 -1003.0 296400.0 595100.0 1001 100000 INB[6] 439600.0 189500.0 873.2 68120.0 439800.0 813200.0 1001 100000 INB[7] 5.83E+5 227400.0 1048.0 137200.0 583200.0 1.031E+6 1001 100000 INB[8] 726400.0 265400.0 1222.0 206300.0 726600.0 1.25E+6 1001 100000 INB[9] 869800.0 303300.0 1397.0 275400.0 8.7E+5 1.468E+6 1001 100000 INB[10] 1.013E+6 341200.0 1571.0 344500.0 1.013E+6 1.686E+6 1001 100000 INB[11] 1.157E+6 379100.0 1746.0 413500.0 1.157E+6 1.904E+6 1001 100000 INB[12] 1.3E+6 4.17E+5 1920.0 482500.0 1.3E+6 2.122E+6 1001 100000 INB[13] 1.443E+6 454900.0 2094.0 551600.0 1.444E+6 2.34E+6 1001 100000 Q[1] 0.0 0.0 3.162E-13 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 Q[2] 1.9E-4 0.01378 4.23E-5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1001 100000 Q[3] 0.55 0.4975 0.002094 0.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[4] 0.9111 0.2846 0.00115 0.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[5] 0.9746 0.1575 5.997E-4 0.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[6] 0.9892 0.1035 3.927E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[7] 0.9943 0.07528 2.83E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[8] 0.9964 0.05964 2.21E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[9] 0.9975 0.04994 1.84E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[10] 0.9981 0.04355 1.656E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[11] 0.9985 0.03909 1.501E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[12] 0.9988 0.03491 1.269E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 Q[13] 0.999 0.03176 1.099E-4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1001 100000 TextControllers.StdCtrlDescTextControllers.ControllerDescContainers.ControllerDescControllers.ControllerDesc aY?$ ZGo * ,[ @Documents.ControllerDesc vz pk ~