BUGS^© Version 0.5

Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling
Manual Volume i

David Spiegelhalter, Andrew Thomas, Nicky Best and Wally Gilks

MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK

Tel: (+44) 1223 330300; Fax: (+44) 1223 330388

Permission and Disclaimer

First the formal stuff.

Permission to use, copy and distribute this software and its documentation for any purpose is hereby granted without fee, provided that both copyright notice and this permission notice appears in all copies.

The MRC Biostatistics Unit disclaims all warranties with regard to this software, including all special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of this software.

More informally, potential users are reminded to be extremely careful if using this program for serious statistical analysis. Appropriate parameterisation, monitoring for convergence, and model checking are only briefly discussed in this manual, and are left entirely to the user's responsibility. We strongly recommend an incremental approach to modelling, assessing at each stage sensitivity to inputs and assumptions.

We have tested the program on quite a wide set of examples (see accompanying Examples 1 and Examples 2 documents), but be particularly careful with types of model that are currently not featured. If there is a problem, BUGS might just crash, which is not very good, but it might well carry on and produce answers that are wrong, which is even worse. Please let us know of any successes or failures.

Beware - Gibbs sampling can be dangerous!.

Comments to bugs@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk
© 1995 MRC Biostatistics Unit
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