The figures circulated at the Downing Street press conference on Saturday 31st October came from work carried out during the first week in October. The outputs shown represent preparatory work towards a worst case scenario for the number of deaths that would occur if no new interventions were to be introduced.
This is clearly explained in the documents released by SPI-M:
- SPI-MO: Long term winter scenarios preparatory working analysis
- SPI-MO: Medium-term projections and model descriptions
The methodology used was based on previously published work and reviewed as part of an assessment of all the models used to produce evidence for the government advisory groups. Our model is also being continually revised as new data become available.
We regularly publish our forecasts and encourage the use of current outputs, which give a transparent updated assessment of the state of the pandemic.
To view our most recent and previously published results, please go to: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/