3rd-4th July 2014, Bristol
The Young Statisticians’ Meeting (YSM) is an annual event specifically designed for career young statisticians, organised by career young statisticians.
For those in the early years of their statistical career (first 10 years) or currently studying for a PhD, MSc or BSc in Statistics, the YSM offers an excellent opportunity to present their research in a friendly atmosphere, discover a variety of other statistical topics currently being researched and network amongst your peers.
Alex Turner (PhD student at BSU) will be giving a talk, titled “Modelling time-to-remission in chronic disease with multi-state models; a comparison of different operational definitions of remission in psoriatic arthritis patients”.
Abstract: The analysis of survival data becomes difficult when the event of interest is defined by some condition being true over a period of time, rather than observed at a single point in time. For example, a patient with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is usually considered to be in remission after at least a year with with few or no symptoms – called minimal disease activity (MDA) – as observed on occasions of clinic visits. Therefore there is no precise date recorded for the event of remission in patients with PsA, but multiple follow-up times and a date when a clinician confirms that they have already gone into remission.
This study builds on the work of Vern Farewell and Li Su, who proposed a three-state Markov model for characterising the transition intensities to and from remission in PsA. The primary variables indicating the presence of PsA are the numbers of swollen joints and painful joints; some clinicians classify patients as in active or minimal disease based solely on these. Other clinicians prefer definitions of MDA that additionally make use of secondary variables such as the presence of psoriasis. In this study, the suitability of four such operational definitions of MDA are compared, in order to make a recommendation as to which is the most meaningful definition in both clinical and statistical terms. This is done by using each definition of MDA to model remission with Farewell & Su‘s three-state model.
To learn more about the YSM 2014 visit http://www.ysm2014.co.uk/