News

Our latest report on real-time modelling of COVID-19 has now been released In summary: We have revised last week’s estimate of the number of infections arising each day across England from 3,000 (1,500–5,800, 95% credible interval) to 5,300 (3,500–7,600, 95% credible interval). Over the last week there is no evidence of any further change in […]

Our latest report on real-time tracking of COVID-19 has been released. Findings show: We estimate that across England, infections are down to 3,000 (1,500–5,800, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July. […]

Model and report changes Our real-time model, which provides regular now-casts and forecasts of COVID-19 infections and deaths, has been further updated to allow higher susceptibility to infection in the over-75s. The modelling focuses on regional data and we no longer report an estimate of Rt for England. This is better provided through the modelling […]

The perfect trial during a pandemic: Uses meaningful and efficient endpoints Discards poor treatments quickly Can cope with multiple treatments Minimizes burden on frontline staff But foremost is adaptive. Making sure that effective treatments reach patients quickly is particularly important in a new disease. Adaptive designs have the capability to react to the changing knowledge […]