Anne Presanis’ research focuses on the development and application of methods to combine multiple data sources to estimate different aspects of how infectious diseases spread. As well as characterising epidemics, Anne -who is a member of Daniela de Angeli’s group in the BSU’s Evidence Synthesis to inform Health theme- also works on “conflict diagnostic” methods for assessing whether different data sources provide a consistent view of the quantities being estimated.
Anne’s work resulted in estimates of the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic and estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence in the UK. In the modelling of the HIV epidemic, information comes from public health surveillance, community surveys and health registries. These data are combined in an evidence synthesis with information from previous studies or expert opinion to provide authoritative estimates of the number of individuals infected with HIV informed by all available information.
The group’s work on HIV has led to the adoption of their model to provide the UK’s annual official HIV prevalence estimates since 2005, informing public health policies on HIV. The most recent estimate indicates that 98,400 (credible interval 93,500 – 104,300) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2012, of whom 22% (18-27%) were still unaware of their infection.