Our latest report on real-time tracking of COVID-19 has been released.
- We estimate that across England, infections are down to 3,000 (1,500–5,800, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
- We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July.
- We estimate that it is very likely that is below 1 in each region of England.
- The Midlands has the highest probability (15%) that is above 1 and a central estimate for of 0.89. However, the numbers of new infections occurring in this region on a daily basis is relatively low.
- The data used are only weakly informative on over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.
Link to full report: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/