Our latest report on real-time tracking of COVID-19 has been released.

Findings show:

1. We estimate that across England, infections are down to 3,000 (1,500–5,800, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
2. We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 35 and 70 by the middle of July.
3. We estimate that it is very likely that  is below 1 in each region of England.
4. The Midlands has the highest probability (15%) that is above 1 and a central estimate for  of 0.89. However, the numbers of new infections occurring in this region on a daily basis is relatively low.
5. The data used are only weakly informative on  over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.

Link to full report: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/