Latest modelling analysis from Public Health England (PHE) and MRC Biostatistics Unit’s COVID-19 working group suggests that the COVID-19 vaccination programme has so far prevented an estimated 7.2 million infections and 27,000 deaths in England alone.

This is the first analysis giving an estimated number of vaccine-prevented infections, providing further evidence of the staggering impact of the vaccination programme so far.

PHE Head of Immunisation Dr Mary Ramsay said:

“These findings remind us once again why getting both doses of your vaccine is the most important thing you can do to stop the spread of this terrible disease.

“As well as preventing the deaths of tens of thousands from COVID-19, for the first time we can now appreciate the huge impact that the vaccines have had on stopping people getting infected, and therefore passing the virus on to others.”

The results were produced using the PHE/Cambridge real-time pandemic surveillance model, looking at the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on infections and mortality. The PHE/Cambridge real-time pandemic surveillance model has been used throughout the pandemic to better understand and predict the number of infections and deaths. The results suggest that up to 19th June 2021, the vaccination programme has prevented between 6.4 and 7.9 million infections and 26,100 and 28,400 deaths in England alone.

The total was calculated by comparing the estimated impact of vaccination on infection and mortality against a worst-case scenario where no vaccines were in place to reduce infections and mortality.

Dr Paul Birrell, Senior Research Associate at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge and Senior Principal Modeller at Public Health England, said:

“The number of infections and deaths saved by the vaccination programme is not only astoundingly high, but continues to grow exponentially as the vaccination programme continues.

“In practice, this analysis highlights that the vaccination programme has given us a path back towards a normal life that wouldn’t otherwise have been possible. This is why it’s so important that we all get two doses of the vaccine as soon as we can.”

Vaccination rates in the model are based on the actual number of doses administered, and the vaccine is assumed to reduce susceptibility to COVID-19 as well as mortality once infected.