Our latest report on real-time modelling of COVID-19 has now been released

In summary:

• We have revised last week’s estimate of the number of infections arising each day across England from 5,300 (3,000–9,000, 95% credible interval) to 3,600 (2,400–5,400, 95% credible interval). Over the last week there is no evidence of any further change in the number of daily new infections with the current estimate being 3,300 (1,900–5,700, 95% credible interval).
• We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 45 and 85 by the end of July.
• We estimate it is very likely that Rt
• is below 1 in all regions of England.
• The East of England and the North East & Yorkshire have the highest probabilities (33% and 32% respectively) that Rt

is above 1. This probability is ≤5

• % for the North West and the Midlands.
• The data used are only weakly informative on Rt

over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.

 

The full report is available from https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/