Following a period of carrying out important modifications to our model, we have published a new report on our real-time tracking of COVID-19.

We have highlighted the key updates and provided interpretation of what these updates mean. The lead researchers have also given their comment on the latest finding.

Updated Findings

1. The estimated number of new daily infections on the 23rd February across England is 99,500 (74,000–136,000, 95% credible interval). The daily infection rate is estimated to be 178 per 100k population per day nationally. The highest rate is currently in the South West (SW) with 280 infections per 100K population followed by London (GL) with 208 infections per 100K population and the West Midlands (WM) at 199. These rates correspond to 15,700, 18,500 and 11,700 daily infections respectively. There is then a drop to the East of England (EE) (175), South East (SE) (173), East Midlands (EM)(154) and the North East (NE) (NE) (142). Rates of infection are estimated to be much lower in the North West (NW) than elsewhere, with 44 per 100K population. Note that a substantial proportion of these infections will be asymptomatic.
2. The daily number of deaths is declining, such that the expected number of deaths halves every 38 days at its current rate. We forecast between 76 and 164 deaths per day by the 16th of March.
3. This week we believe the national Rt to be less than 1, depressed currently by the ongoing half-term school holiday period over the last two weeks, resulting in near certainty that Rt < 1 with only the SW having a probability of Rt>1 that is greater than 10%.
4. The growth rate for England is -0.02 (-0.04– -0.01) per day. This means that, nationally, the number of infections is declining, corresponding to an Rt of around 0.8.
5. Our estimates for the attack rate, that is the proportion of the regional populations who have ever been infected, have GL and NE at 61%. WM and EM are all also above the national average with 57% and 54% respectively.
6. Note that the deaths data used are only very weakly informative on Rt over the last two weeks. Therefore, the estimate for current incidence, Rt and the forecast of daily numbers of deaths are likely to be subject to significant revision.

Interpretation

Across England, the daily number of deaths are falling steadily. Estimates for PCR-positive infection prevalence are uniformly declining across all regions of the country. Combined with the knowledge that over the last two weeks there has been reduced epidemic activity across the country due to the staggered half-time school holidays, it is no surprise that estimates for Rt are currently low at around 0.8.

The current period of decline is still to a level of incidence far higher than at the time of our last published report. Since then, our results show that the Omicron variant has infected over 15 million individuals in the last three months. Our current estimate is that 30% of all infections are re-infections.

We estimate that infection with the Omicron variant is less likely to result in death. Over the period covered by Omicron, the overall IFR has changed little, but this masks age-specific IFR estimates that are falling for each age group. The overall IFR staying constant therefore suggests that the balance of COVID infection is shifting to more vulnerable (i.e. older) groups. Plots of the IFR over time show that we are currently estimating the most steep decline in IFR in the younger age groups. Following this drop, the overall IFR is 0.12% (0.11%–0.12%), highest in the over-75s at 2.3% (2.2%–2.5%), a drop of around 25% from that which was estimated in our last report.

Comment from lead researchers, Prof Daniela De Angelis & Dr Paul Birrell

Across England, the daily number of deaths are falling steadily. Estimates for PCR-positive infection prevalence are uniformly declining across all regions of the country. Combined with the knowledge that over the last two weeks there has been reduced epidemic activity across the country due to the staggered half-time school holidays, it is no surprise that estimates for Rt are currently low at around 0.8.

The current period of decline is still to a level of incidence far higher than at the time of our last published report. Since then, our results show that the Omicron variant has infected over 15 million individuals in the last three months. Our current estimate is that 30% of all infections are re-infections.

We estimate that infection with the Omicron variant is less likely to result in death. Over the period covered by Omicron, the overall IFR has changed little, but this masks age-specific IFR estimates that are falling for each age group. The overall IFR staying constant therefore suggests that the balance of COVID infection is shifting to more vulnerable (i.e. older) groups. Plots of the IFR over time show that we are currently estimating the steepest decline in IFR in the younger age groups. Following this drop, the overall IFR is 0.12% (0.11%–0.12%), highest in the over-75s at 2.3% (2.2%–2.5%), a drop of around 25% from that which was estimated in our last report.

Read full report: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-25th-february-2022/