A new report on our real-time tracking of COVID-19 has been published today.

We have highlighted the key updates and provided interpretation of what these updates mean. We have also explained our model and report changes since August.

If you would like further information and to speak with the researchers leading this work, please contact Alison Quenault (alison.quenault@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk). Any press enquiries can also be directed to Alison.

Updated findings

1. Our current estimate of the number of infections occurring each day across England is 47,000 (28,900–74,900, 95% credible interval).
2. We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 240 and 690 on the 26th October
3. We estimate Rt to be above 1 in all regions with a 100% probability, apart from the South West, for which the probability of Rt exceeding 1 is 86%.
4. London, followed by the North West, continues to have the highest attack rate, the proportion of the population who have ever been infected, with 20% and 15% respectively. The South West continues to have the lowest attach rate (3%).

Interpretation

1. The estimated growth rate for England is 0.09 (0.07,0.10, 95% credible interval) per day. This means that the number of infections grows by 9% each day and it translates into a doubling in number in under one week.
2. The central estimates for the number of new infections is particularly high in the North West and the North East and Yorkshire (17,600 and 10,700 infections per day, respectively), followed by London and the Midlands (5,450 and 5,720, respectively). Note that a substantial proportion of these daily infections will be asymptomatic.
3. Also note that the deaths data used are only weakly informative on Rt over the last two weeks and are still occurring only in small numbers. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are naturally quite uncertain.

Model and report changes

1. The definition of deaths has been adapted to include all deaths that occur in individuals who have had lab-confirmed infection within 60 days from the date of their most recent positive test. This definition reflects more realistically the burden of COVID-19.
2. Using observations of improved survival in hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we have allowed the probability of dying to given infection (the infection-fatality rate, IFR) to gradually change over the course of June 2020, with a decrease being estimated.
3. The model uses seroprevalence data on the presence of COVID-19 antibodies in blood samples taken by NHSBT to estimate the levels of cumulative infection within the population over time. As, from early June, the NHSBT has been giving a constantly declining prevalence of antibodies, these data have been curtailed at this time.

To read the full report, click here.