MRC Biostatistics Unit
Model and report changes
Our real-time model, which provides regular now-casts and forecasts of COVID-19 infections and deaths, has been further updated to allow higher susceptibility to infection in the over-75s. The modelling focuses on regional data and we no longer report an estimate of Rt for England. This is better provided through the modelling consensus statement supplied by SPI-M and SAGE.
Updated findings
- We estimate that across England there are 4,300 (2,400–7,300, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
- We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 60 and 90 by the end of the first week of July.
- We estimate that it is very likely that Rt is below 1 in each region of England.
- The South West has the highest probability (30%) that Rt is above 1 and a central estimate for Rt of 0.94. However, the numbers of new infections occurring in this region on a daily basis is relatively low.
- The data used are only weakly informative on Rt over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.