The most recent report on our nowcasting and forecasting of COVID19 is available.

Findings show:

1. Our current estimate of the number of infections arising each day across England is 3,000 (1,600–5,520, 95% credible interval).
2. We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 43 and 84 by mid-August.
3. We estimate it is very likely that Rt is close to 1 in most regions of England.
4. The South West and the South East have the highest probabilities (62% and 57% respectively) that Rt is above 1. The probability of exceeding 1 is less than 20% only for the East of England and the Midlands.
5. The data used are only weakly informative on Rt over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.

Model and report changes:

Our real-time model has been further updated to allow for uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the serological testing. The modelling focuses on regional data and we do not report an estimate of Rt for England. This is better provided through the modelling consensus statement supplied by SPI-M and SAGE.

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To read the full report, click here.