We have released our latest report on nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 infections in England:-

1. We have revised last week’s estimate of the number of infections arising each day across England from 5,300 (3,000–9,000, 95% credible interval) to 3,600 (2,400–5,400, 95% credible interval). Over the last week there is no evidence of any further change in the number of daily new infections with the current estimate being 3,300 (1,900–5,700, 95% credible interval).
2. We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 45 and 85 by the end of July.
3. We estimate it is very likely that $R_t$is below 1 in all regions of England.
4. The East of England and the North East & Yorkshire have the highest probabilities (33% and 32% respectively) that  is above 1. This probability is $\le 5$% for the North West and the Midlands.
5. The data used are only weakly informative on $R_t$ over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.

For the full report please see https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/