We have released our latest report on nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 infections in England:-
- We have revised last week’s estimate of the number of infections arising each day across England from 5,300 (3,000–9,000, 95% credible interval) to 3,600 (2,400–5,400, 95% credible interval). Over the last week there is no evidence of any further change in the number of daily new infections with the current estimate being 3,300 (1,900–5,700, 95% credible interval).
- We predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 45 and 85 by the end of July.
- We estimate it is very likely that is below 1 in all regions of England.
- The East of England and the North East & Yorkshire have the highest probabilities (33% and 32% respectively) that is above 1. This probability is % for the North West and the Midlands.
- The data used are only weakly informative on over the last two weeks. Therefore, the now-cast for current incidence and the forecast of deaths are quite uncertain.
For the full report please see https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/