BUGS Users Papers and Publications

### LIST OF PAPERS PUBLISHED AND IN PRESS

**March 2000**

Millar, R. B. and Meyer, R. (2000).

Bayesian state-space modeling of age-structured data: fitting a model is just the beginning

Canadian J. Fisheries Aquatic Sciences (Volume 57) pp. 43-50

Saether, B. E. and Tufto, J. and Engen, S. and Jerstad, K. and Rostad, O. W. and Skatan, J. E. (2000).

Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird

Science (Volume 287) pp. 854-856

Best, N. and Wakefield, J. (1999).

Accounting for inaccuracies in population counts and case registration in cancer mapping studies [full text available, price (pounds)17.63]

J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A-Statistics Society (Volume 162) pp. 363-382

Bjornstad, O. N. and Fromentin, J. M. and Stenseth, N. C. and Gjosaeter, J. (1999).

Cycles and trends in cod populations

Proceedings National Academy Sciences United States America (Volume 96) pp. 5066-5071

Brayne, C. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. and Dufouil, C. and Chi, L. Y. and Dening, T. R. and Paykel, E. S. and Oconnor, D. W. and Ahmed, A. and McGee, M. A. and Huppert, F. A. (1999).

Estimating the true extent of cognitive decline in the old old

J. Amer. Geriatrics Soc. (Volume 47) pp. 1283-1288

Brophy, J. M. and Joseph, L. and Theroux, P. (1999).

Medical decision making in the choice of a thrombolytic agent for acute myocardial infarction

Medical Decision Making (Volume 19) pp. 411-418

Burton, P. R. and Tiller, K. J. and Gurrin, L. C. and Cookson, W. O. C. M. and Musk, A. W. and Palmer, L. J. (1999).

Genetic variance components analysis for binary phenotypes using generalized linear mixed models (glmms) and gibbs sampling

Genetic Epidemiology (Volume 17) pp. 118-140

Carabin, H. and Gyorkos, T. W. and Soto, J. C. and Joseph, L. and Payment, P. and Collet, J. P. (1999).

Effectiveness of a training program in reducing infections in toddlers attending day care centers

Epidemiology (Volume 10) pp. 219-227

Chib, S. and Carlin, B. P. (1999).

On mcmc sampling in hierarchical longitudinal models

Statistics Computing (Volume 9) pp. 17-26

Erkanli, A. and Soyer, R. and Costello, E. J. (1999).

Bayesian inference for prevalence in longitudinal two-phase studies

Biometrics (Volume 55) pp. 1145-1150

Hellmich, M. and Abrams, K. R. and Sutton, A. J. (1999).

Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis of roc curves

Medical Decision Making (Volume 19) pp. 252-264

Holland, M. J. and Palmarini, M. and Garciagoti, M. and Gonzalez, L. and McKendrick, I. and Delasheras, M. and Sharp, J. M. (1999).

Jaagsiekte retrovirus is widely distributed both in t and b lymphocytes and in mononuclear phagocytes of sheep with naturally and experimentally acquired pulmonary adenomatosis

J. Virology (Volume 73) pp. 4004-4008

Landrum, M. B. and McNeil, B. J. and Silva, L. and Normand, S. L. T. (1999).

Understanding variability in physician ratings of the appropriateness of coronary angiography after acute myocardial infarction

J. Clinical Epidemiology (Volume 52) pp. 309-319

Landrum, M. B. and Normand, S. L. T. (1999).

Applying bayesian ideas to the development of medical guidelines

Statistics Medicine (Volume 18) pp. 117-137

Mander, A. P. and Hughes, M. D. and Sharp, S. J. and Lamm, C. J. (1999).

Autoregressive models for describing non-linear changes in biological parameters fitted using bugs

Statistics Medicine (Volume 18) pp. 2709-2722

Meyer, R. and Millar, R. B. (1999).

Bugs in bayesian stock assessments

Canadian J. Fisheries Aquatic Sciences (Volume 56) pp. 1078-1087

Mezzetti, M. and Robertson, C. (1999).

A hierarchical bayesian approach to age-specific back- calculation of cancer incidence rates

Statistics Medicine (Volume 18) pp. 919-933

Normand, S. L. T. (1999).

Meta-analysis: formulating, evaluating, combining, and reporting

Statistics Medicine (Volume 18) pp. 321-359

Osnes, K. and Aalen, O. O. (1999).

Spatial smoothing of cancer survival: a bayesian approach

Statistics Medicine (Volume 18) pp. 2087-2099

Palmer, L. J. and Tiller, K. J. and Burton, P. R. (1999).

Genome-wide linkage analysis using genetic variance components of alcohol dependency-associated censored and continuous traits

Genetic Epidemiology (Volume 17) pp. S283-S288

Rahman, N. J. and Wakefield, J. C. and Stephens, D. A. and Falcoz, C. (1999).

The bayesian analysis of a pivotal pharmacokinetic study

Statistical Methods Medical Research (Volume 8) pp. 195-216

Royston, P. and Ferreira, A. (1999).

A new approach to modeling daily probabilities of conception

Biometrics (Volume 55) pp. 1005-1013

Tenhave, T. R. and Localio, A. R. (1999).

Empirical bayes estimation of random effects parameters in mixed effects logistic regression models

Biometrics (Volume 55) pp. 1022-1029

Thompson, S. G. and Sharp, S. J. (1999).

Explaining heterogeneity in meta-analysis: a comparison of methods

Statistics Medicine (Volume 18) pp. 2693-2708

Wong, C. M. and Hu, Z. G. and Lam, T. H. and Hedley, A. J. and Peters, J. (1999).

Effects of ambient air pollution and environmental tobacco smoke on respiratory health of non-smoking women in hong kong

International J. Epidemiology (Volume 28) pp. 859-864

Abrams, K. and Sanso, B. (1998).

Approximate bayesian inference for random effects meta- analysis

Statistics Medicine (Volume 17) pp. 201-218

Albert, I. and Jais, J. P. (1998).

Gibbs sampler for the logistic model in the analysis of longitudinal binary data

Statistics Medicine (Volume 17) pp. 2905-2921

Ayanian, J. Z. and Landrum, M. B. and Normand, S. L. T. and Guadagnoli, E. and McNeil, B. J. (1998).

Rating the appropriateness of coronary angiography – do practicing physicians agree with an expert panel and with each other?

New England J. Medicine (Volume 338) pp. 1896-1904

Branco, M. and Bolfarine, H. and Iglesias, P. (1998).

Bayesian calibration under a student-t model

Computational Statistics (Volume 13) pp. 319-338

Chevrolat, J. P. and Golmard, J. L. and Ammar, S. and Jouvent, R. and Boisvieux, J. F. (1998).

Modelling behavioral syndromes using bayesian networks

Artificial Intelligence Medicine (Volume 14) pp. 259-277

Clayton, D. and Spiegelhalter, D. and Dunn, G. and Pickles, A. (1998).

Analysis of longitudinal binary data from multiphase sampling

J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series B-Statistical Methodology (Volume 60) pp. 71-87

Congdon, P. (1998).

A multilevel model for infant health outcomes: maternal risk factors and geographic variation

Statistician (Volume 47) pp. 159-182

Gebhardt, M. D. and Neuenschwander, B. E. and Zwahlen, M. (1998).

Adjusting aids incidence for non-stationary reporting delays: a necessity for country comparisons

European J. Epidemiology (Volume 14) pp. 595-603

Gebhardt, M. and Rickenbach, M. and Egger, M. (1998).

Impact of antiretroviral combination therapies on aids surveillance reports in switzerland

Aids (Volume 12) pp. 1195-1201

Jones, B. and Teather, D. and Wang, J. and Lewis, J. A. (1998).

A comparison of various estimators of a treatment difference for a multi-centre clinical trial

Statistics Medicine (Volume 17) pp. 1767-1777

Kleinman, K. P. and Ibrahim, J. G. (1998).

A semi-parametric bayesian approach to generalized linear mixed models

Statistics Medicine (Volume 17) pp. 2579-2596

E C Marshall and D J Spiegelhalter (1998).

Reliability of league tables of in vitro fertilisation clinics: retrospective analysis of live birth rates

British Medical Journal (Volume 317) pp. 1701–1704

Miller, M. A. and Seaman, J. W. (1998).

A bayesian approach to assessing the superiority of a dose combination

Biometrical J. (Volume 40) pp. 43-55

Oconnell, P. J. and Harms, C. T. and Allen, J. R. F. (1998).

Metolachlor, s-metolachlor and their role within sustainable weed- management

Crop Protection (Volume 17) pp. 207-212

Prevost, T. C. and Launoy, G. and Duffy, S. W. and Chen, H. H. (1998).

Estimating sensitivity and sojourn time in screening for colorectal cancer – a comparison of statistical approaches

Amer. J. Epidemiology (Volume 148) pp. 609-619

Rodriguezzas, S. L. and Gianola, D. and Shook, G. E. (1998).

Bayesian analysis via gibbs sampling of susceptibility to intramammary infection in holstein cattle

J. Dairy Science (Volume 81) pp. 2710-2722

Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1998).

Bayesian graphical modelling: a case-study in monitoring health outcomes

Applied Statistics-J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series C (Volume 47) pp. 115-133

D J Spiegelhalter and E C Marshall (1998).

Comparing institutional performance using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Recent Advances in the Statistical Analysis of MedicalData pp. 229–250

Bernardinelli, L. and Pascutto, C. and Best, N. G. and Gilks, W. R. (1997).

Disease mapping with errors in covariates

Statistics Medicine (Volume 16) pp. 741-752

Dunmur, A. P. and Titterington, D. M. (1997).

Computational bayesian analysis of hidden markov mesh models

Ieee Trans. On Pattern Analysis Machine Intelligence (Volume 19) pp. 1296-1300

Gertsch, P. and Stipa, F. and Ho, J. and Yuen, S. T. and Luk, I. and Lauder, I. J. (1997).

Changes in hepatic portal resistance and in liver morphology during regeneration: in vitro study in rats

European J. Surgery (Volume 163) pp. 297-304

L Gibson and D J Spiegelhalter and C Camilleri-Ferrante and N E Day (1997).

Trends in cervical cancer incidence in East Anglia from 1971 to 1993

Journal of Medical Screening (Volume 4) pp. 44-48

Givens, G. H. and Smith, D. D. and Tweedie, R. L. (1997).

Publication bias in meta-analysis: a bayesian data- augmentation approach to account for issues exemplified in the passive smoking debate

Statistical Science (Volume 12) pp. 221-240

Jordan, P. and Brubacher, D. and Tsugane, S. and Tsubono, Y. and Gey, K. F. and Moser, U. (1997).

Modelling of mortality data from a multi-centre study in japan by means of poisson regression with error in variables

International J. Epidemiology (Volume 26) pp. 501-507

McDonald, J. W. and Prevost, A. T. (1997).

The fitting of parameter-constrained demographic models

Mathematical Computer Modelling (Volume 26) pp. 79-88

Thompson, S. G. and Smith, T. C. and Sharp, S. J. (1997).

Investigating underlying risk as a source of heterogeneity in meta- analysis

Statistics Medicine (Volume 16) pp. 2741-2758

N G Best and D J Spiegelhalter (1996).

Modelling complexity using BUGS

Statistical Modelling: Proceedings of the 11th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Orvietto, Italy

N G Best and D J Spiegelhalter and A Thomas and C E G Brayne (1996).

Bayesian analysis of realistically complex models

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Volume 159) pp. 323–342

Bois, F. Y. and Jackson, E. T. and Pekari, K. and Smith, M. T. (1996).

Population toxicokinetics of benzene

Environmental Health Perspectives (Volume 104) pp. 1405-1411

Christiansen, O. B. and Pedersen, B. and Mathiesen, O. and Husth, M. and Grunnet, N. (1996).

Maternal hla class ii alleles predispose to pregnancy losses in danish women with recurrent spontaneous abortions and their female relatives

Amer. J. Reproductive Immunology (Volume 35) pp. 239-244

Goldstein, H. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996).

League tables and their limitations: statistical issues in comparisons of institutional performance

J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series A-Statistics Society (Volume 159) pp. 385-409

Higgins, J. P. T. and Whitehead, A. (1996).

Borrowing strength from external trials in a meta-analysis

Statistics Medicine (Volume 15) pp. 2733-2749

Ohagan, A. and Smith, C. A. B. and Jennison, C. and Barnard, G. A. and Bisson, A. N. and Wilson, N. and Palmer, C. and Spiegelhalter, D. and Best, N. and Dawid, A. P. and Geyer, C. J. and Aitkin, M. and Bartlett, M. S. and Brown, P. J. and Chatfield, C. and Coolen, F. P. A. and Cox, D. R. and Geisser, S. and Golstein, M. and Good, I. J. and Hampel, F. and Hutton, J. L. and Kyburg, H. E. and Levi, I. and Lindley, D. V. and Pericchi, L. R. and Rotondi, R. and Seidenfeld, T. and Wasserman, L. and Walker, S. (1996).

Inferences from multinomial data: learning about a bag of marbles – discussion

J. Royal Statistical Soc. Series B-Methodological (Volume 58) pp. 34-57

T C Smith and D J Spiegelhalter and M H Parmar (1996).

Bayesianmeta-analysis for randomized trials using graphical models and BUGS

Case Studies in Bayesian Biostatistics pp. 411–428

D J Spiegelhalter and N G Best and W R Gilks and H Inskip (1996).

Hepatitis: a case study in MCMC methods

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods in Practice pp. 21–44

Vines, S. K. and Gilks, W. R. and Wild, P. (1996).

Fitting bayesian multiple random effects models

Statistics Computing (Volume 6) pp. 337-346

Weiser, H. and Riss, G. and Kormann, A. W. (1996).

Biodiscrimination of the eight alpha-tocopherol stereoisomers results in preferential accumulation of the four 2r forms in tissues and plasma of rats

J. Nutrition (Volume 126) pp. 2539-2549

Wild, P. and Hordan, R. and Leplay, A. and Vincent, R. (1996).

Confidence intervals for probabilities of exceeding threshold limits with censored log-normal data

Environmetrics (Volume 7) pp. 247-259

Bernardinelli, L. and Clayton, D. and Pascutto, C. and Montomoli, C. and Ghislandi, M. and Songini, M. (1995).

Bayesian-analysis of space-time variation in disease risk

Statistics Medicine (Volume 14) pp. 2433-2443

Christiansen, O. B. and Andersen, H. H. and Hojbjerre, M. and Kruse, T. A. and Lauritzen, S. L. and Grunnet, N. (1995).

Maternal hla class-ii allogenotypes are markers for the predisposition to fetal losses in families of women with unexplained recurrent fetal loss

European J. Immunogenetics (Volume 22) pp. 323-334

Smith, T. and Charlwood, J. D. and Takken, W. and Tanner, M. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1995).

Mapping the densities of malaria vectors within a single village

Acta Tropica (Volume 59) pp. 1-18

Smith, T. C. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. and Thomas, A. (1995).

Bayesian approaches to random-effects meta-analysis: a comparative study

Statistics Medicine (Volume 14) pp. 2685-2699

Wang, Y. G. and Thomas, M. R. (1995).

Accounting for individual variability in the von bertalanffy growth- model

Canadian J. Fisheries Aquatic Sciences (Volume 52) pp. 1368-1375