model {
sN ~ dexp(0.5) # life without transplant (mean 2)
oT ~ dbern(0.8) # survive operation (prob 0.8)
sP ~ dexp(0.2) # life if survive transplant (mean 5)
sT <- oT*sP # total life time if choose transplant
Ic <- 20000 + 3000*sT # total additional cost of transplant
Is <- sT - sN # total additional survival
r <- Ic/Is # individual cost per additional year
}

node mean sd MC error 2.5% median 97.5% start sample
Ic 3.2E+4 14690.0 14.56 2.0E+4 27050.0 71990.0 1 1000000
Is 2.002 5.287 0.005213 -5.68 0.6658 15.64 1 1000000
oT 0.7999 0.4 3.952E-4 0.0 1.0 1.0 1 1000000
r -5885.0 7.948E+6 7904.0 -184600.0 5278.0 111100.0 1 1000000
sN 1.998 2.001 0.001936 0.05045 1.382 7.386 1 1000000
sP 4.995 4.992 0.005088 0.1261 3.469 18.46 1 1000000
sT 4.0 4.896 0.004855 0.0 2.351 17.33 1 1000000