MRC Biostatistics UnitList of BSU publications about our research on COVID-19, organised by research area
Providing evidence on the course of the epidemic
Aggarwal D et al. Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission. Under review. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-520627/v1
Álvarez-Esteban P C et al. Predicting COVID-19 progression from diagnosis to recovery or death linking primary care and hospital records in Castilla y León (Spain). PLOS One. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0257613
Birrell P et al. Real-time Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 Dynamics in England: the first wave? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0279.
Challen R et al. Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.05.21258365
Cooper DJ et al. A prospective study of risk factors associated with seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in healthcare workers at a large UK teaching hospital. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.03.20220699
Docherty AB et al. Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. In press. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00175-2
Funk S et al. Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.11.20220962
Grosso FM et al. Decreasing hospital burden of COVID-19 during the first wave in Regione Lombardia: an emergency measures context. preprint doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-288193/v1
Illingworth C et al. Superspreaders drive the largest outbreaks of hospital onset COVID-19 infection. preprint doi: 10.31219/osf.io/wmkn3
Illingworth C et al. A2B-COVID: A method for evaluating potential SARS-CoV-2 transmission events. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219642
Hall VJ et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN). The Lancet. 2021 ; 397: 1459–69. PMID: 33844963
Kemp SA et al. SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection. Nature. 2021 Feb 5. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03291-y. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33545711
Kemp SA et al. Neutralising antibodies in Spike mediated SARS-CoV-2 adaptation. medRxiv preprint doi: 10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927v3
Kirwan P et al. Trends in risks of severe events and lengths of stay for COVID-19 hospitalisations in England over the pre-vaccination era: results from the Public Health England SARI-Watch surveillance scheme. preprint: arXiv:2103.04867
Laydon DJ et al. Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns. BMJ. 2021. Open 11:e050346. PubMed PMID:33888533
Mulchandani R et al. Self assessment overestimates historical COVID-19 disease relative to sensitive serological assays: cross sectional study in UK key workers. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.19.20178186
Nicholson G et al. Local prevalence of transmissible SARS-CoV-2 infection: an integrative causal model for debiasing fine-scale targeted testing data. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.17.21256818
Nyberg T et al. Hospitalisation risk for COVID-19 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: cohort analysis. preprint: arXiv:2104.05560
Pellis L et al. Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: conceptual and statistical challenges. Royal Statistical Society website. 2021. PellisBirrel.pdf (rss.org.uk)
Presanis A. Risk Factors for Severe Hospital Burden During the First Wave of COVID-19 Disease in Regione Lombardia. preprint doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792155
Pouwels KB et al. Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey. Lancet Public Health. 2020 Dec 10:S2468-2667(20)30282-6. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30282-6. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33308423
Seaman S et al. Estimating a Time-to-Event Distribution from Right-Truncated Data in an Epidemic: a Review of Methods. SMMR. Accepted.
Nowcasting CoVID-19 Deaths in England by Age and Region. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.15.20194209
Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;20(7):767-769. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30398-4. Epub 2020 May 15. PMID: 32422199
Stage HB et al. Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe. The Royal Society Publishing. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0277
Walker AS et al. Viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases varies widely and temporally. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219048
Walker AS et al. Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219048
Wallace S et al. SIREN protocol: Impact of detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 on the subsequent incidence of COVID-19 in 100,000 healthcare workers: do antibody positive healthcare workers have less reinfection than antibody negative healthcare workers? medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.15.20247981
Providing evidence for patient care
Early immune pathology and persistent dysregulation characterise severe COVID-19. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.11.20248765
Burgess S et al. Lightening the viral load to lessen covid-19 severity. BMJ. 2020 Dec 10;371:m4763. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m4763. PMID: 33303483
Burgess S et al. Rising numbers of positive covid-19 tests in the UK. BMJ. 2020. 370:m3605. PMID:32943434
Burgess S et al. Are we underestimating seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2?. BMJ. 2020. 370:m3364. PMID:32883673
Gaziano L et al. Actionable druggable genome-wide Mendelian randomization identifies repurposing opportunities for COVID-19. Nat Med. 2021. 27:668-676. PubMed PMID:33837377
Gisby J et al. Longitudinal proteomic profiling of dialysis patients with COVID-19 reveals
2 markers of severity and predictors of death. Elife. 2021 Mar 11;10:e64827. PMID: 33704068
et al. Genetically proxied interleukin-6 receptor inhibition: opposing associations with COVID-19 and pneumonia. Eur Respir J. 2020 Nov 19:2003545. doi: 10.1183/13993003.03545-2020. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33214204
Ponsford MJ et al. Cardiometabolic Traits, Sepsis and Severe COVID-19: A Mendelian Randomization Investigation. Circulation. 2020. PMID:32966752
Sinharay R et al. Assessing efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction scores to prioritise hepatitis B surveillance in the COVID-19 era. GastroHep. 2021 Mar;3(2):80-87. doi: 10.1002/ygh2.443. PMID: 33821150
Wiegand M et al. Development and validation of a dynamic 48-hour in-hospital prognostic risk stratification for COVID-19 in a UK teaching hospital: a retrospective cohort study. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251150
Designing and analysing interventions on care for COVID-19 patients
N Engl J Med. 2020 May 7;382(19):1787-1799. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001282. Epub 2020 Mar 18. PMID: 32187464
Cunniffe NG et al. How achievable are COVID-19 clinical trial recruitment targets? A UK observational cohort study and trials registry analysis. BMJ Open. 2020. 10:e044566. PMID:33020111
Clin Trials. 2020 Oct;17(5):472-482. doi: 10.1177/1740774520939938. Epub 2020 Jul 16. PMID: 32674594
Trials. 2020 Jun 19;21(1):544. doi: 10.1186/s13063-020-04473-1. PMID: 32560744
Machiwenyika JMT et al. Trajectories of vital signs in patients with Covid-19. Resuscitation. 2021 May;162:449-450. doi: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2021.01.047. PMID: 33609606
Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 Oct 8. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2022926. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33031652
Lancet. 2020 Oct 5:S0140-6736(20)32013-4. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32013-4. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33031764
N Engl J Med. 2020 Jul 17:NEJMoa2021436. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2021436. Online ahead of print. PMID: 32678530
Trials. 2020 May 24;21(1):422. doi: 10.1186/s13063-020-04352-9. PMID: 32448345
Lancet. 2020 May 16;395(10236):1569-1578. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31022-9. Epub 2020 Apr 29. PMID: 32423584
et al. Ensuring that COVID-19 research is inclusive: guidance from the NIHR INCLUDE project. BMJ Open. 2020 Nov 5;10(11):e043634. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043634. PMID: 33154065
Lay Articles
Sylvia Richardson. Pregnant women need to be at front of vaccine queue. 25 May 2021. The Times.
Sylvia Richardson. Vaccine rollouts, school testing and contact tracing could all be improved – here’s how. 5 Feb 2021. The Conversation.
Co-authors include Sylvia Richardson. Covid-19 INNOVA testing in schools: don’t just test, evaluate. BMJ Opinion Piece.
Peter J. Diggle and Sylvia Richardson. A perspective on real-time epidemic surveillance for Covid-19. 29 Sept 2020. Significance magazine.
Sylvia Richardson and David Spiegelhalter. Coronavirus statistics: what can we trust and what should we ignore? 12 Apr 2020. The Observer.
News
Read our COVID-19 news articles and listen to podcasts which members of our Unit have taken part in – COVID-19 News