List of BSU publications about our research on COVID-19, organised by research area 

---

Providing evidence on the course of the epidemic

Aggarwal D et al. Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission. Under review. doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-520627/v1

Birrell P et al. Real-time Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19 Dynamics in England: the first wave? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0279.

Challen R et al. Early epidemiological signatures of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants: establishment of B.1.617.2 in England. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.05.21258365

Cooper DJ et al. A prospective study of risk factors associated with seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in healthcare workers at a large UK teaching hospital. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.03.20220699

Docherty AB et al. Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. In press. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00175-2

Funk S et al. Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.11.20220962

Grosso FM et al. Decreasing hospital burden of COVID-19 during the first wave in Regione Lombardia: an emergency measures context. preprint doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-288193/v1

Illingworth C et al. Superspreaders drive the largest outbreaks of hospital onset COVID-19 infection. preprint doi: 10.31219/osf.io/wmkn3

Illingworth C et al. A2B-COVID: A method for evaluating potential SARS-CoV-2 transmission events. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219642

Hall VJ et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN). The Lancet. 2021 ; 397: 1459–69. PMID: 33844963

Kemp SA et al. SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection. Nature. 2021 Feb 5. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03291-y. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33545711

Kemp SA et al. Neutralising antibodies in Spike mediated SARS-CoV-2 adaptation. medRxiv preprint doi: 10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927v3

Kirwan P et al. Trends in risks of severe events and lengths of stay for COVID-19 hospitalisations in England over the pre-vaccination era: results from the Public Health England SARI-Watch surveillance scheme. preprint: arXiv:2103.04867

Laydon DJ et al. Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns. BMJ. 2021. Open 11:e050346. PubMed PMID:33888533

Mulchandani R et al. Self assessment overestimates historical COVID-19 disease relative to sensitive serological assays: cross sectional study in UK key workers. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.19.20178186

Nicholson G et al. Local prevalence of transmissible SARS-CoV-2 infection: an integrative causal model for debiasing fine-scale targeted testing data. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.17.21256818

Nyberg T et al. Hospitalisation risk for COVID-19 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: cohort analysis. preprint: arXiv:2104.05560

Pellis L et al. Estimation of reproduction numbers in real time: conceptual and statistical challenges. Royal Statistical Society website. 2021. PellisBirrel.pdf (rss.org.uk)

Presanis A. Risk Factors for Severe Hospital Burden During the First Wave of COVID-19 Disease in Regione Lombardia. preprint doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3792155 

Pouwels KB et al. Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey. Lancet Public Health. 2020 Dec 10:S2468-2667(20)30282-6. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30282-6. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33308423 

Seaman S et al. Estimating a Time-to-Event Distribution from Right-Truncated Data in an Epidemic: a Review of Methods. SMMR. Accepted.

Seaman S et al. Nowcasting CoVID-19 Deaths in England by Age and Region. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.15.20194209

Simpson C R et al. The UK hibernated pandemic influenza research portfolio: triggered for COVID-19. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;20(7):767-769. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30398-4. Epub 2020 May 15. PMID: 32422199

Stage HB et al. Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe. The Royal Society Publishing. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0277

Walker AS et al. Viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases varies widely and temporally. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219048

Walker AS et al. Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219048

Wallace S et al. SIREN protocol: Impact of detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 on the subsequent incidence of COVID-19 in 100,000 healthcare workers: do antibody positive healthcare workers have less reinfection than antibody negative healthcare workers? medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.15.20247981

---

Providing evidence for patient care

Bergamaschi L et al. Early immune pathology and persistent dysregulation characterise severe COVID-19. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.11.20248765

Burgess S et al. Lightening the viral load to lessen covid-19 severity. BMJ. 2020 Dec 10;371:m4763. doi: 10.1136/bmj.m4763. PMID: 33303483 

Burgess S et al. Rising numbers of positive covid-19 tests in the UK. BMJ. 2020. 370:m3605. PMID:32943434

Burgess S et al. Are we underestimating seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2?. BMJ. 2020. 370:m3364. PMID:32883673

Gaziano L et al. Actionable druggable genome-wide Mendelian randomization identifies repurposing opportunities for COVID-19. Nat Med. 2021. 27:668-676. PubMed PMID:33837377

Gisby J et al. Longitudinal proteomic profiling of dialysis patients with COVID-19 reveals
2 markers of severity and predictors of death. Elife. 2021 Mar 11;10:e64827. PMID: 33704068

Larsson SC et al. Genetically proxied interleukin-6 receptor inhibition: opposing associations with COVID-19 and pneumonia. Eur Respir J. 2020 Nov 19:2003545. doi: 10.1183/13993003.03545-2020. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33214204 

Ponsford MJ et al. Cardiometabolic Traits, Sepsis and Severe COVID-19: A Mendelian Randomization Investigation. Circulation. 2020. PMID:32966752

Sinharay R et al. Assessing efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma prediction scores to prioritise hepatitis B surveillance in the COVID-19 era. GastroHep. 2021 Mar;3(2):80-87. doi: 10.1002/ygh2.443. PMID: 33821150 

Wiegand M et al. Development and validation of a dynamic 48-hour in-hospital prognostic risk stratification for COVID-19 in a UK teaching hospital: a retrospective cohort study. medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251150

---

Designing and analysing interventions on care for COVID-19 patients

Cao B et al. A Trial of Lopinavir-Ritonavir in Adults Hospitalized with Severe Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 May 7;382(19):1787-1799. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001282. Epub 2020 Mar 18. PMID: 32187464

Cunniffe NG et al. How achievable are COVID-19 clinical trial recruitment targets? A UK observational cohort study and trials registry analysis. BMJ Open. 2020. 10:e044566. PMID:33020111

Dodd LE et al. Endpoints for randomized controlled clinical trials for COVID-19 treatments. Clin Trials. 2020 Oct;17(5):472-482. doi: 10.1177/1740774520939938. Epub 2020 Jul 16. PMID: 32674594

Griffiths G et al. AGILE-ACCORD: A Randomized, Multicentre, Seamless, Adaptive Phase I/II Platform Study to Determine the Optimal Dose, Safety and Efficacy of Multiple Candidate Agents for the Treatment of COVID-19: A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised platform trial. Trials. 2020 Jun 19;21(1):544. doi: 10.1186/s13063-020-04473-1. PMID: 32560744

Machiwenyika JMT et al. Trajectories of vital signs in patients with Covid-19. Resuscitation. 2021 May;162:449-450. doi: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2021.01.047. PMID: 33609606

RECOVERY Collaborative Group. Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19. N Engl J Med. 2020 Oct 8. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2022926. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33031652

RECOVERY Collaborative Group. Lopinavir-ritonavir in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial. Lancet. 2020 Oct 5:S0140-6736(20)32013-4. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32013-4. Online ahead of print. PMID: 33031764

RECOVERY Collaborative Group. Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 – Preliminary Report. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jul 17:NEJMoa2021436. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2021436. Online ahead of print. PMID: 32678530

Wang Y et al. Evaluation of the efficacy and safety of intravenous remdesivir in adult patients with severe COVID-19: study protocol for a phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. Trials. 2020 May 24;21(1):422. doi: 10.1186/s13063-020-04352-9. PMID: 32448345 

Wang Y et al. Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. Lancet. 2020 May 16;395(10236):1569-1578. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31022-9. Epub 2020 Apr 29. PMID: 32423584

Witham MD et al. Ensuring that COVID-19 research is inclusive: guidance from the NIHR INCLUDE project. BMJ Open. 2020 Nov 5;10(11):e043634. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-043634. PMID: 33154065 

---

Lay Articles

Sylvia Richardson. Pregnant women need to be at front of vaccine queue. 25 May 2021. The Times.

Sylvia Richardson. Vaccine rollouts, school testing and contact tracing could all be improved – here’s how. 5 Feb 2021. The Conversation.

Co-authors include Sylvia Richardson. Covid-19 INNOVA testing in schools: don’t just test, evaluate. BMJ Opinion Piece.

Peter J. Diggle and Sylvia Richardson. A perspective on real-time epidemic surveillance for Covid-19. 29 Sept 2020. Significance magazine.

Sylvia Richardson and David Spiegelhalter. Coronavirus statistics: what can we trust and what should we ignore? 12 Apr 2020. The Observer.

---

News

Read our COVID-19 news articles and listen to podcasts which members of our Unit have taken part in – COVID-19 News