My research interests lie in the development of computationally challenging Bayesian models in application to problems in the field of infectious disease epidemiology, with particular focus on pandemic influenza and HIV.
In particular, I am interested in the development of Bayesian real-time monitoring tools for pandemic influenza outbreaks and developing inferential systems to assist with pandemic preparedness. Such tools must effectively synthesise information encoded in expert opinion together with incoming data from a range of sources to produce timely online inferences in the form of estimates of key epidemic characteristics and projections, with a view to informing the public health response to the pandemic.
Additionally, I am involved in a range of projects in HIV, from the estimation of age-specific trends in incidence, diagnosis and prevalence in England & Wales via a modified back-projection method, to assessments of elimination thresholds through 'treatment as prevention' and 'test and treat' strategies.
- Birrell, P. J., Gill, O. N., Delpech, V. C., Brown, A. E., Desai, S., Chadborn, T. R., Rice, B. D. & De Angelis, D. (2013)
HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001–10: a nationwide population study.
Lancet Infectious Diseases 13: (4), 313-318
- Kretzschmar, M. E., Schim van der Loeff, M. F., Birrell, P. J., De Angelis, D. & Coutinho, R. A. (2013)
Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.
PNAS 110: (39), 15538-15543
- Birrell, P. J., Chadborn, T. R., Gill, O. N., Delpech, V. C. & De Angelis, D. (2012)
Estimating Trends in Incidence, Time-to-Diagnosis and Undiagnosed Prevalence using a CD4-based Bayesian Back-calculation.
Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases 2: (1), 1948-4690
- Birrell, P. J., Ketsetzis, G., Gay, N. J., Cooper, B. S., Presanis, A. M., Harris, R. J., Charlett, A., Zhang, X.-S., White, P. J., Pebody, R. G. & De Angelis, D. (2011)
Unmasking the pandemic: a Bayesian reconstruction of influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 108: 18238-18243
- Working Group on Estimation of HIV Prevalence in Europe (including Birrell, P., De Angelis, D., Presanis, A., Sweeting, M.). (2011)
HIV in hiding: methods and data requirements for the estimation of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV.
AIDS 25: (8), 1017-1023
- Presanis, A. M., Pebody, R. G., Paterson, B. J., Tom, B. D. M., Birrell, P. J., Charlett, A., Lipsitch, M. & De Angelis, D. (2011)
Changes in severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in England: a Bayesian evidence synthesis.
BMJ 343: d5408