SURPH: Statistical methods Using data Resources to improve Population HealthTelephone number:
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Paul is a Senior Statistician in the Statistics, Modelling, and Economics Department in the National Infection Service of Public Health England and Senior Research Associate at MRC-BSU in Professor De Angelis' group. His work focuses on the development of complex statistical models for epidemics, to estimate disease burden and transmission and to predict their impact on healthcare services. Paul specialises in using such models for real-time Bayesian statistical inference and has particular interest in the computational algorithms that can both improve timeliness and permit greater modelling complexity/detail. He has applied these methods extensively to uncover incidence of HIV infection and the prospects of its elimination as a public health threat to gay and bisexual men; track seasonal influenza; and monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in real-time.