Paul Birrell

ESH: Evidence synthesis to inform health
Telephone number: 01223 330374
Email Address:
Other Research Theme Collaborations: COLD

My research interests lie in the development of computationally challenging Bayesian models in application to problems in the field of infectious disease epidemiology, with particular focus on pandemic influenza and HIV.

In particular, I am interested in the development of Bayesian real-time monitoring tools for pandemic influenza outbreaks and developing inferential systems to assist with pandemic preparedness. Such tools must effectively synthesise information encoded in expert opinion together with incoming data from a range of sources to produce timely online inferences in the form of estimates of key epidemic characteristics and projections, with a view to informing the public health response to the pandemic.

Additionally, I am involved in a range of projects in HIV, from the estimation of age-specific trends in incidence, diagnosis and prevalence in England & Wales via a modified back-projection method, to assessments of elimination thresholds through 'treatment as prevention' and 'test and treat' strategies.

Selected Papers